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Joe Biden
Engels2 (ENG)
Hogeschool PXL
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Joe Biden
First, we will have to take a look at the basics namely: who is he really, which party does he represent and how did he become president in the first place? Why will he not be re-elected and why am I so sure about that?
Backstory
He is the 46th and oldest president of the United States of America and a former vice- president working with Obama who even gave him the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Having run unsuccessfully twice before, he finally became the president in 2020, 32 years after his first attempt at becoming the president. He and his running mate Kamala Harris defeated the incumbent Republican president Donald Trump and vice-president Mike Pence making history as Harris is the first-ever vice-president to be a woman. The victory wasn’t very convincing for the democrats but they still won.
The 2020 election
Electoral college
If we are going to talk about the 2024 elections, we first have to look at the 2020 elections that Biden won. As I said before it wasn’t a convincing win because the republicans had more states voting for them, yet the democrats won. This is because the US elections don’t work with the number of people that voted for you, but they work with the electoral college. In short, it means that a state in the US is either red (republican) or blue (democratic). Each state has a fixed number of electors that all add up to 538 electors. If the candidate gets the most votes in a state, the state turns red or blue. If it turns red, the republican candidate gets the number of electors of that state. The blue candidate won’t get any electors from this particular state. If a candidate has 270 electoral votes, they automatically cannot be beat. Biden got more electoral votes than Trump meaning he won.
Other candidates
Who were the other candidates competing for the presidency and how did Joe Biden beat them? Well in my opinion Joe Biden was one of the weaker candidates we had ever seen. But the problem was that the then-president was even worse. Being the president, Trump immediately became the republican candidate as he was famous because of his presidency. In the democratic party, Joe Biden was the favourite but there was still some chance that someone else was going to be the candidate. I have an explanation as to why Biden won and not the others. You had Elizabeth Warren who is a woman and well you know the Americans, they are very conservative and wouldn’t let a woman become president. Pete Buttigieg is gay and that’s exactly the same story; Americans won’t let a gay man become president. Lastly, there was Bernie Sanders who is an ‘extreme’ leftist and therefore didn’t become the democratic candidate. So why was Joe Biden a weak candidate? He is already 77 years old and therefore he is ‘too’ old to be the president. There had also been a scandal involving his son in Ukraine but I won’t go too deep into that. Because of his older age, he often forgets
stuff during his speeches and sometimes he seems like he doesn’t even know what he is talking about saying controversial things.
Victory
So how did Joe Biden manage to beat Trump? There is a man called Allen Lichtman who has predicted the elections since 1984. He predicted the Biden win and has a unique method of predicting it. He calls it the ‘keys’ and there are 13 of them. If a candidate has 7 of them, they will be the next president and Joe Biden had exactly 7. Some of them included the likes of social unrest in the country during the presidency of Trump, the short-term and long-term economy being very bad due to the covid outbreak, the scandals of Trump including his impeachment,... They all gave Biden an advantage and made people realise that perhaps Trump hadn’t handled the virus in the right way.
2024 Elections
Although he hasn’t even been president for a year, I predict that he will not be the next president of the USA. Biden himself has actually said that he will probably be too old to run for president again, but if he were to run again let’s use the keys and the information we currently already have to decide if the republican party will be the winners of the 2024 elections. I will only list the ones that the republic party could win so we get a better view of the situation where Biden loses.
Biden runs again
Of course, we can’t decide all of them yet but we can still look at some of them that could already be decided and could be decisive. And for the others, we can take a good guess. If Biden will run again there will probably be primary contest because it is known that not all democratic candidates support the current president. So he might not even be the first candidate for the democratic party. This means that the republicans already get one key. The short-term economy is currently still pretty bad due to the covid outbreak but it can’t really be decided now because the elections are in 3 years; but this could already be the second key. The long-term economy will probably still be bad due to covid so that is the second key to the republicans. They receive their third and fourth key due to the failure of Biden in Afghanistan. He had a military failure which is one key and also hasn’t really had any foreign or military success as of yet which is another one. Currently, there is still social unrest because the whole country is divided. Trump got his voters to become extremists and absolutely don’t want anything to do with Biden. It is his job to reunite the country but as of yet, he hasn’t so the fifth key goes to the republicans. The sixth and final key we can pretty much guess as of yet is the uncharismatic character of Biden which gives a key to the republicans.
So as you can see right now the republicans have about 6 keys which isn’t a good sign for Biden.
Joe Biden
Vak: Engels2 (ENG)
Universiteit: Hogeschool PXL
