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Russia-Ukraine conflict pushes up Vietnam inflation estimate
Course: Mathematics for Business (MAT101)
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University: Trường Đại học Kinh tế Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh
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Russia-Ukraine conflict pushes up Vietnam inflation
estimate
Dragon Capital has upped its inflation forecast for this year from
3.5 percent to 3.58-4.18 percent following the surge on oil prices
due to the Russia-Ukraine imbroglio.
The crisis would not directly affect the Vietnamese economy
since the country’s trade with them accounts for less than 2
percent of its total, but the rising energy prices would drive up
inflation, the fund management company said.
Transportation and energy currently make up 9.7 and 3.6 percent
of the goods basket that makes up the consumer price index
(CPI).
JP Morgan estimated oil prices range from US$88-115 per barrel
this year, saying the situation in Ukraine and progress in the Iran
nuclear talks are the two main factors.
Russia is the world's third largest oil exporter. The conflict, which
can disrupt Russian oil supply to Europe via pipelines, will affect
global supply.
Speaking to OilPrice.com, market intelligence firm Kpler said
Iran could fully recover its oil production within a year since the
sanctions on its oil exports have been lifted.
The new supply from Iran could immediately reduce global prices
by 5-10 percent, it said.
In the worst case scenario, in which Russia steps up action against
Ukraine and no nuclear deal is reached with Iran, prices are likely
to average $115 per barrel.